Fins ara, poques vegades la internacional mediàtica s'havia fet ressò de les enquestes perquè pràcticament totes eren unànimes en expressar l'optimisme dels iraquians (en aquest blog n'he publicat una gran part). Un optimisme que va declinar entre el febrer de l'any passat i el gener d'aquest a causa del canvi en l'estratègia del terror, que va passar d'atacar principalment a les forces de la coalició a promoure l'enfrontament civil amb atacs indiscriminats contra la població en mercats, mesquites i llocs sagrats, com el mausoleu de Samarra. Una situació de violència, concentrada bàsicament a Bagdad i l'àrea sunnita, i que l'entrada en funcionament del pla de seguretat està ajudant a resoldre, tot i que encara és molt aviat per cantar victòria.
Però per acostar-nos millor a la realitat iraquiana en aquest quart aniversari no ens hauriem de limitar a l'enquesta de la BBC -l'única que la majoria de mitjans ha publicat- sinó a moltes altres que s'han fet i que matitzen considerablement la primera. No tinc temps per fer-ne un resum, però us ofereixo diversos enllaços i extractes.
Article publicat al "Times" de Londres: Iraqis: life is getting better
MOST Iraqis believe life is better for them now than it was under Saddam Hussein, according to a British opinion poll published today.
The survey of more than 5,000 Iraqis found the majority optimistic despite their suffering in sectarian violence since the American-led invasion four years ago this week.
One in four Iraqis has had a family member murdered, says the poll by Opinion Research Business. In Baghdad, the capital, one in four has had a relative kidnapped and one in three said members of their family had fled abroad. But when asked whether they preferred life under Saddam, the dictator who was executed last December, or under Nouri al-Maliki, the prime minister, most replied that things were better for them today.
Only 27% think there is a civil war in Iraq, compared with 61% who do not, according to the survey carried out last month.
By a majority of two to one, Iraqis believe military operations now under way will disarm all militias. More than half say security will improve after a withdrawal of multinational forces.
Margaret Beckett, the foreign secretary, said the findings pointed to progress. “There is no widespread violence in the four southern provinces and the fact that the picture is more complex than the stereotype usually portrayed is reflected in today’s poll,” she said.
La referència anterior està extreta d'Opinion Research Business.
March 07 - Despite violence only 26% preferred life under Saddam
One in four (26%) Iraqi adults have had a family relative murdered in the last three years, while 23% of those living in Baghdad have had a family/relative kidnapped in the last three years.
These are among the findings released today from the largest poll into Iraqi opinion ever to be published. Carried out by UK research firm ORB, which has been tracking public opinion in Iraq since 2005, the poll shows that despite the horrendous personal security problems only 26% of the country preferred life under the previous regime of Saddam Hussein, with almost half (49%) preferring life under the current political system. As one may expect, it is the Sunnis who are most likely to back the previous regime (51%) with the Shias (66%) preferring the current arrangements. Carried out amongst a nationally representative sample of 5,019 Iraqi adults aged 18 years+ and coming just days before the fourth anniversary of the invasion of Iraq, the poll reveals that despite the large number of civilian deaths each month, largely as a result of militia activity, only 27% believe that their country is actually in a state of civil war. Opinion here is clearly divided, as 22% feel “we are close to a state of civil war but not yet in one” while 18% argue that the country is “still some way from civil war”. Regionally, 43% of those in the Shia dominated South believe “Iraq will never get as far as civil war”. The corresponding figure in the Sunni dominated North plummets to 5% where the strongest sentiment (voiced by 42%) is that the country is already in a state of civil war. Regionally there are also significant differences in attitudes regarding the security situation and the influence of Multi National Forces (MNF). Nationally a small majority (53%) feels that the security situation in Iraq will get better in the immediate weeks following a withdrawal of the MNF. A quarter (26%) believes the situation will deteriorate with the remainder predicting no change or answering "Don't know." It is in the South where people most strongly believe that the withdrawal of the MNF will see the security situation improve. By a ratio of nearly seven to one the Shia dominated South feels that the situation will get "a great deal/little better" (69%) rather than "worse" (10%). In the Sunni North however opinion is more evenly divided – 46% feel it will get better and 37% feel it will get worse. What about talk of creating a federal Iraq? With the exception of the Kurdish population in the North of the country a majority (64%) support Iraq remaining as a single country run by a central national government. On this point Sunnis (57%) and Shias (69%) agree that the country should continue as one nation. Note: The opinion poll was conducted by ORB and the survey details are as follows: •Results are based on face-to-face interviews amongst a nationally representative sample of 5,019 adults aged 18 years + throughout Iraq. •The standard margin of error on the sample size is +1.4% •The methodology uses multi-stage random probability sampling and covers every one of the eighteen governorates within Iraq. •Interviews conducted 10th – 22nd February 2007.
Un 40% de les famílies que havien fugit de Bàsora hi ha retornat.
Una passejada per Erbil, la ciutat kurda al nord de l'Iraq, permet veure coses com aquestes (per més informació vejeu el blog del periodista independent Michael J. Totten):