1) This is just the end of the beginning of the crisis. Prepare for a couple of years of low growth and high unemployment. It will be prolonged if banks with bad loans are kept on life support.
2) But there won´t be a depression. Don´t worry, in a couple of years we will be back and take too many risks and borrow too much again.
3) Obama will be the next American president, but since he secretly understands that trade is good, he will abandon his campaign promise to throw the world into depression with protectionist measures.
4) I think Europe will suffer more than the US. European banks are in worse shape and many have horribly weak capital bases. European banks might collapse like dominos. And since most European economies are less flexible than the American economy it will take them longer to get out of the crisis.
5) European politicians will be busy discussing symbols (like salaries) instead of solutions.
6) Emerging markets won´t be protected, but on the other hand the money that they´ve made from exports will give liquidity to the entire world economy, make them owners of many Western financial institutions and give them stronger positions in the international system.
7) No, there is no need for you to do anything with your savings and investments, unless you need cash now. The one thing we can be sure of is that when you and I get the information, others have already acted on it and it´s part of the prices.
8) If you have money, the time to buy is when everybody says that "[T]his is just the end of the beginning of the crisis".
Adéu a Nihil Obstat | Hola a The Catalan AnalystDesprés de 13 anys d'escriure en aquest bloc pràcticament sense interrumpció, avui el dono per clausurat. Això no vol dir que m'hagi jubilat de la xarxa, sinó que he passat el relleu a un altra bloc que segueix la mateixa línia del Nihil Obstat. Es tracta del bloc The Catalan Analyst i del compte de Twitter del mateix nom: @CatalanAnalyst Us recomano que els seguiu.
Moltes gràcies a tots per haver-me seguit amb tanta fidelitat durant tots aquests anys.
dimarts, 7 d’octubre de 2008
Les prediccions de Johan Norberg:
Publicado por NO a les 10:20 p. m.