La predicció de Johan Norberg

Barack Obama will win, but the race will be closer than polls predicts, partly because it´s so easy to say "Obama" to the pollster when everybody loves him. I would guess 52-53% vs 47-48% nationally. Obama will govern as a centrist and a lot of people will be disappointed when they see him in action because expectations are so exaggerated and because he is too smart to give in to the anti-trade, anti-business bunch.

But Obama will win again in 2012, because a Republican civil war will rage as diverse forces like the religious right, the national security conservatives and the free-marketeers fight bitterly over the soul of the party. The Republicans will still win the mid-term elections because of discontent with the Democratic Congress, but they won´t be able to unite behind and be enthusiastic about one presidential candidate. Sarah Palin will be crushed in the primaries by some young, urban and modern Republican who makes "change" the center of his campaign.

And the saddest person in the world tonight will be Hillary Clinton.