Xavier Sala i Martín
RECESSION WAS OVER IN JUNE!!!!!The National Bureau of Economic Research is the (private) organization in charge of dating business cycles in the United States. Their dating committee decided today that the recession that started in November 2007 was officially over by June 2009. This means that this is the longest recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s (although the second and third longest were close: 16 months as opposed to 18 months now). It also means that those "gurus" that forecasted that the worst would come in mid 2010 were exactly wrong. Third, it means that it takes these experts a LOOONG time to see when a recession starts and when it ends. And finally, related to the previous point, the implications of the "Keynesian Solution" to the recession (that is, the implications of extravagantly large government deficits and debts) will not be seen by the experts for quite a while.