Es per això que Líbia els va tornar a agafar per sorpresa. Gaddaffi, veient el poc futur que l'esperava si seguia les passes de Ben Ali i de Mubarak, va plantar cara, calcul·lant que la comunitat internacional no s’atreviria a intervenir militarment. I no es va equivocar del tot. Si no fós per la necessitat electoral de Sarkozy i per la ferma voluntat de les dames de ferro de l’administració nord-americana, ja se'n hauria sortit. El més calent, però, encara és a l'aigüera.
Tot i que la resolució 1973 permet fer, si es vol, gairebé qualsevol cosa, la manca d'objectius clars provoca la continencia aliada. El fet que s'hagi descartat explícitament el derrocament de Gadaffi ha convertit la intervenció en una pallassada. Però el que és més greu és que aquesta indecissió de la coalició està provocant el resentiment d'aquest pupurri de nacionalistes laics i islamistes que conformen l'oposició líbia. Si l'OTAN seguix així, enlloc d'apuntar-se un tanto i fer-se creditora de l'enderrocament del tirà, reforçant la seva influència en el canvi de règim, l'únic que aconseguirà és que l'ajuda als rebels acabi arribant de mans dels mujaidins, obrint la porta a Al Qaeda, que és el que més témen els aliats.
L'objectiu occidental hauria de ser la caiguda dels dictadors i la seva substitució per règims democràtics, quan es presenta l'ocasió. Probablement, en aquesta regió del món els nous règims democràtics seran d'inspiració islàmica -com Turquia, Indonèsia o Malaisia- però no islamistes. Seria paradoxal que la dreta conservadora, que sol ser religiosa, rebutgés els models democràtics musulmans inspirats en la democràcia cristiana, mentre que l'esquerra laica i sovint menjacapellans es convertís en el seu principal defensor.
The Economist ho explica d'una manera molt clara i entenedora:
Islam is bound to play a larger role in government in the Arab world than elsewhere. Most Muslims do not believe in the separation of religion and state, as America and France do, and have not lost their enthusiasm for religion, as many “Christian Democrats” in Europe have. Muslim democracies such as Turkey, Malaysia and Indonesia all have big Islamic parties.
But Islamic does not mean Islamist. Al-Qaeda in the past few years has lost ground in Arab hearts and minds. The jihadists are a small minority, widely hated by their milder co-religionists, not least for giving Islam a bad name across the world. Ideological battles between moderates and extremists within Islam are just as fierce as the animosity pitting Muslim, Christian and Jewish fundamentalists against each other. Younger Arabs, largely responsible for the upheavals, are better connected and attuned to the rest of the modern world than their conservative predecessors were.
Moreover, some Muslim countries are on the road to democracy, or already there. Some are doing well. Among Arab countries, Lebanon, with its profusion of religions and sects, has long had a democracy of a kind, albeit hobbled by sectarian quotas and an armed militia, Hizbullah. Iraq has at least elected a genuine multiparty parliament.
Outside the Arab world, in Turkey, Malaysia and Indonesia, Islam and democracy are cohabiting fairly comfortably. Many devout Muslims among the Arab protesters, including members of the Brotherhood, cite Turkey as a model. Its mildly Islamist government is showing worrying signs of authoritarianism these days, but it serves its people far better than the generals did. Iran, which once held so much sway, is not talked of as a model: theocracy does not appeal to the youngsters on the Arab street.
Still, Muslim countries may well make choices with which the West is not comfortable. But those inclined to worry should remember that no alternative would serve their interests, let alone the Arabs’, in the long run. The old autocrats deprived their people of freedom and opportunity; and the stability they promised, it is now clear, could not endure. Algeria’s civil war in the 1990s remains a horrible warning against depriving Islamists of power they have rightfully won.
Islam will never find an accommodation with the modern democratic world until Muslims can take responsibility for their own lives. Millions more have a chance of doing just that. It is a reason more for celebration than for worry.
