Una predicció clavada

D'articles advertint dels greus problemes que podria provocar una moneda única en una comunitat de països amb economies i polítiques diferents i desiguals n'hi va haver molts, però el tsunami de l'eufòria europeísta ho va ofegar tot. Ara m'he topat amb un article publicat pel Financial Times el 20 de febrer del 1978 que prediu, fil per randa, la crisi que actualment està patint Espanya.

Suppose a country, which we arbitrarily call Spain, experiences a boom which is stronger than in the rest of the euro-area. As a result of the boom, output and prices grow faster in Spain than in the other euro-countries. This also leads to a real estate boom and a general asset inflation in Spain. Since the ECB looks at euro-wide data, it cannot do anything to restrain the booming conditions in Spain. In fact the existence of a monetary union is likely to intensify the asset inflation in Spain. Unhindered by exchange risk vast amounts of capital are attracted from the rest of the euro-area. Spanish banks that still dominate the Spanish markets, are pulled into the game and increase their lending. They are driven by the high rates of return produced by ever increasing Spanish asset prices, and by the fact that in a monetary union, they can borrow funds at the same interest rate as banks in Germany, France etc. After the boom comes the bust. Asset prices collapse, creating a crisis in the Spanish banking system.