Adéu a Nihil Obstat | Hola a The Catalan Analyst

Després de 13 anys d'escriure en aquest bloc pràcticament sense interrumpció, avui el dono per clausurat. Això no vol dir que m'hagi jubilat de la xarxa, sinó que he passat el relleu a un altra bloc que segueix la mateixa línia del Nihil Obstat. Es tracta del bloc The Catalan Analyst i del compte de Twitter del mateix nom: @CatalanAnalyst Us recomano que els seguiu.

Moltes gràcies a tots per haver-me seguit amb tanta fidelitat durant tots aquests anys.

dimarts, 21 de febrer de 2006

Ha de sortir Espanya de l'euro?

El tema el va plantejar diumenge el Financial Times amb l'article de Walter Munchau Spain has reason to quit euro (es necessita registre de suscriptor). Li respon avui Paul Isbell, també al Financial Times Spain unlikely even to contemplate leaving the euro.
True, Spain lacks the capacity to regain competitiveness through currency devaluation. However, this is not the great unbearable vulnerability that Mr Munchau suggests but rather Spain's mighty shield against contagion from Latin America, where Spain is highly exposed. While Spain's national debt in absolute and relative terms is smaller than that of Italy's, its exposure to the "Latam effect" is much higher. Had Spain not been a member of the Economic and Monetary Union during the Argentine crisis and the near-default in Brazil, it would have long ago suffered from devaluation, stock market weakness, a decline in the housing market and, likely, a recession. In that scenario, the Spanish Socialist Workers' party victory in 2004 would not have come as a surprise.
But Spain will be the last man holding the euro flag. While the country faces a correction sooner or later, such an adjustment - and all future ones - would certainly be much more severe should Spain ever even contemplate the possibility of exiting the euro.